Covid

The SARS-CoV-2 virus outbreak was first referred to as an epidemic, a disease that spreads rapidly in a particular community or region. The COVID-19 epidemic that is spreading globally throughout the world has resulted in it being declared a pandemic. Then recently experts began to predict that the COVID-19 outbreak would not completely disappear and would become an endemic disease.

Endemic disease is a disease that always exists in certain groups of people or populations. What to do if COVID-19 becomes an endemic disease?

What does it mean if COVID-19 becomes an endemic disease?

Until the end of 2020, there is no sign that the COVID-19 pandemic will end. In Indonesia, the number of cases is still increasing every day. Similar conditions occur globally, even though a number of countries have succeeded in controlling the rate of transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Some experts say that the disease caused by infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus has a high probability of becoming an endemic disease.

Britain's chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, said that hopes that COVID-19 could be completely eliminated to the point did not envisage possible future scenarios. This argument arises based on the fact that until now it is not known how long the body's immunity or antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 virus can last. Immunity is meant either that produced by the vaccine or that arises after recovering from COVID-19. So far, the results of a number of studies have shown that the immune system against COVID-19 from recovered patients only lasts a matter of months.

“We cannot confirm (how the pandemic ends). But I think it's impossible to end up relying on vaccines alone, will that really stop the rate of infection? "The possibility that this disease will continue to spread and become endemic is my best judgment," said Vallance, to the British National Security Strategy Committee, in London.

Immunity from vaccines

Academic institutions and biotech companies around the world are developing a vaccine for COVID-19 as quickly as possible. Currently, there are at least less than 10 vaccine candidates that are entering the final stages of clinical trials.

Even though it has entered the final stages of clinical trials, it is not known how long the immune system that is formed after being vaccinated can last. Experts say that the vaccines that are currently undergoing clinical trials only reduce the risk of infection and the severity of the disease, not the vaccine that can make a person immune to COVID-19.

Eric Brown, Head of Technical Management for WHO's COVID-19 Response in Thailand, said that none of the vaccines being tested provided guarantees of being immune to transmission, let alone long-term immunity.

"There are a lot of vaccines currently being developed, about two weeks ago there were already 30 or more vaccines being developed in clinical trials (stage 1, 2, or 3). But we have no guarantee that this vaccine will work, ”said Eric in his interview with Hello Sehat Thailand, Monday (2/11).

The most likely scenario is that COVID-19 becomes an endemic disease, a disease that is always present even though its severity has decreased and transmission is under control. It is predicted that the vaccination program is unlikely to be able to completely eradicate this outbreak. Even for a vaccine that can provide long-term immunity, eradicating the plague is difficult. In historical records, smallpox is the only human disease that can be completely eradicated thanks to the discovery of a very effective vaccine.

For information, smallpox was once the most feared disease in the world. Very contagious and deadly, about three out of 10 people who suffer from smallpox die. This highly effective smallpox vaccine is also supported by a type of virus that is not mutated or without a variant (strain). While this does not apply to SARS-CoV-2 which causes COVID-19 which is reported to have at least 10 different types of strains.

Another proponent of eradicating smallpox through a successful vaccination program is that the symptoms of people who are infected are easily visible, no one is infected without symptoms. This condition makes smallpox patients easy to find and isolate immediately.

COVID-19 Outbreak updates Country: IndonesiaData

1,024,298

Confirmed

831,330

Recovered

28,855

DeathDistribution Map

The immunity of patients recovering from COVID-19 did not last long

Another condition that predicts COVID-19 to be an endemic disease is that recovered patients can become infected again. Apart from vaccines that do not promise immunity, the antibodies of people who have recovered from COVID-19 also do not last long.

When a person is infected with a virus, their immune system will respond and form antibodies that function to fight infection. When successfully healed, these antibodies will last to prevent the possibility of contracting again. There are several diseases that provide immunity for a long time and even permanent immunity after recovering from infection. The recovered persons who are then expected to become herd immunity builders (herd immunity).

However, in recovered COVID-19 patients, these antibodies are not reported to last long. Experts say it can only last for one year, but there are several study reports that say COVID-19 antibodies last 3 months. After 3 months, the recovered patient can be reinfected and can infect other people.

Even a disease that provides permanent immunity does not guarantee the loss of a susceptible person. For example, children whose inherited antibodies from their mothers have been depleted are a factor causing measles to become endemic in several regions of the world and affect many children.

The remaining antibodies should have memory for the virus and be able to anticipate it. However, the virus can also evade these immune memories by mutating. This condition causes people who have antibodies to remain infected with the virus with other strains or variants resulting from the mutation.

This condition is what makes COVID-19 predicted to become an endemic disease like influenza.

Therefore, Eric said that there must be fundamental changes in various aspects of life that we have been living so far. "We have to reduce the risk of a pandemic like this happening in the future. Therefore, it is not only the daily habits of individuals, but also how businesses and healthcare operate must change. Even how the country develops policies including the issue of climate change to reduce the risk of outbreaks."