Covid predictions

It has been more than one month since Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) were implemented in Indonesia. During that time the COVID-19 pandemic has forced us to do activities with all our limitations. It is not surprising that many are wondering and looking for predictions when the COVID-19 pandemic will end.

The coronavirus that causes COVID-19 infection is still an unknown enemy. Scientists try to predict by several means of calculation and research models. However, these predictions are calculated from limited data.

Several predictions for when the COVID-19 pandemic will end from scientists

There are several predictions regarding when the end of facing the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. Scientists from various universities in Indonesia to the government gave their guesses.

1. The COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia ends on 7 October 2020

One of the most recent calculations published by Singapore University of Technology and Design (STUD) on Monday (27/4). This research was made using a mathematical method with data taken from various countries.

The Data-Driven Innovation Lab SUTD team predicts the spread of coronavirus in Indonesia will end on June 6, 2020, in which 97% of cases have been resolved. The positive cases of COVID-19 will be fully resolved by early September 2020.

In their notes, they informed that these results will continue to change as the latest data develops.

COVID-19 Outbreak updates Country: IndonesiaData

1,024,298

Confirmed

831,330

Recovered

28,855

DeathDistribution Map

2. UGM predicts the COVID-19 pandemic will decline by the end of July 2020

Professor of Statistics Gadjah Mada University (UGM), Prof. Dedi Rosadi, predicts the COVID-19 pandemic will endemic in Indonesia for the next two months.

Referring to data published by the government until last Thursday (23/4), researchers estimate that the peak of cases will occur in May and decline at the end of July 2020.

This study is the result of mathematical modeling based on real data or probabilistic data-driven model (PPDM). The accuracy of this prediction depends on several factors including strict restrictions, no going home during the COVID-19 pandemic, and no rituals of worship (such as prayers) with large numbers of worshipers.

Apart from the two predictions above, there are several other predictions regarding the end time for the spread of COVID-19 in Indonesia. Among them are from the Eijkman Institute for Molecular Biology (LBM), University of Indonesia, Bandung Institute of Technology, to the Chairperson of the COVID-19 Handling Task Force Doni Monardo and President Joko Widodo.

The reason is that no predictions are completely accurate

One way to answer the question of when the COVID-19 pandemic will end is by calculating predictions through infectious disease infection modeling. This modeling is a tool for finding out what will happen based on a mathematical formulation.

In a conversation with Hello Sehat, Padjadjaran State University epidemiologist dr. Panji Hadisoemarto explained the function of this prediction in the continuation of handling COVID-19 and several reasons that made it not entirely accurate.

Doctor Panji explained that every model to make predictions definitely requires data. Ideally, the data used is the number of cases reported every day without any delay. However, this ideal data is not yet available.

"The problem is (of all the cases), we don't know what percentage was reported. We also don't know for sure how long the delay in reporting will be. So this data does not represent the actual increase in cases, "explained dr. Banner.

He added that if the data did not represent the actual increase in cases, there would be bias (deviation) in the final result.

In addition, if we look deeper, each study report notes several conditions that make the prediction results fluctuate.

For example, prediction calculations were carried out when the PSBB was strictly implemented. If the PSBB is relaxed or many people violate the PSBB rules, the results of prediction calculations will no longer be relevant.

Although the prediction for the end of COVID-19 brings hope and fresh air to plan many things for the future, we cannot be too optimistic about assuming that these results will be accurate. Especially if you only read headlines 'COVID-19 pandemic ends July' and immediately believe the information outright.

"Be careful. We cannot consider the modeling results to be true, ”explained dr. Banner.

Many COVID-19 predictions end with few clues

By looking at the different results, we can understand that some predictions for the end of COVID-19 are inaccurate. According to dr. Panji, the function of this prediction study is not to predict the future but to influence future preventive actions.

"Maybe quantitatively not accurate. But qualitatively, we can see the picture and (the results) can be quite useful as input for policy, "explained dr. Banner.

From these predictions, we can also know that by adopting a clean lifestyle and following the restriction rules the results will be seen, especially in flattening the COVID-19 pandemic curve.

There are several scenarios for how the COVID-19 pandemic will end. But what is clear is that we still have a long way to go. Even as the number of cases starts to dwindle and restrictions are relaxed, we can't let our guard down. We must be aware of the arrival of the second wave of COVID-19.

What we can do now is continue to obey the advice, maintain cleanliness, and apply physical distancing .