The end of the covid pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has infected more than one million people and resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. Although the number of cases continues to increase, a number of researchers have predicted a scenario that might be the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to Amesh Adalja, a researcher and infectious disease expert at the Johns Hopkins' Center for Health Security, United States, the current pandemic has various possibilities. The following is the theory put forward by Adalja and a number of other researchers regarding the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Theory 1: The COVID-19 pandemic is not over

The transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is among the fastest of its kind. As an illustration, one positive patient can infect 1-2 healthy people.

In fact, a patient at a hospital in Wuhan is reported to have spread the infection to more than 57 people. This transmission rate is much faster than the plague Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) which broke out in 2003.

According to Adalja, the COVID-19 outbreak, which at that time was still known as an infection novel coronavirus it may not have an end. This is based on a model of the spread of the infection he published in early February.

Referring to this model, it is estimated that COVID-19 will infect more than 300,000 people by February 24, 2020. This disease is likely to become a pandemic, namely a disease that has spread to all parts of the world.

Estimates regarding the number of cases are somewhat missed, because the number of cases as of February 24 is 80,027 people. However, he was right about COVID-19 which is now a pandemic.

COVID-19 Outbreak updates Country: IndonesiaData

1,024,298

Confirmed

831,330

Recovered

28,855

DeathDistribution Map

Even so, you don't have to panic. Although the COVID-19 pandemic may not have an end, Adalja also sparked 'children' from his first theory. Here's an overview:

1. COVID-19 never goes away, but becomes a seasonal disease

SARS-CoV-2 is one part of the coronavirus . Scientists have so far discovered seven types coronavirus in humans. Some types only cause colds and flu, but some can trigger severe breathing problems.

The COVID-19 outbreak may not end, but it can become seasonal illnesses such as colds and flu. Flu viruses last longer in cold temperatures. Once the summer or dry season enters, the infection rate may decrease as the virus becomes weaker.

2. COVID-19 is a mild disease

Coronavirus is a virus that is very susceptible to mutation. Apart from making the virus stronger, mutations can also weaken the virus. The mutations might make SARS-CoV-2 weaker so that the patient only experiences flu-like symptoms.

However, this scenario is questioned by Stephen Morse, an epidemiologist from Columbia University, USA. According to him, SARS-CoV-2 could be a virus similar to the virus that causes colds, but this is not the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the process is certainly long.

Theory 2: Infection decreases on its own

The COVID-19 outbreak is very similar to the SARS outbreak. Apart from both originating from bats, the two viruses also share 80% similarities in DNA. Scientists suspect that the end of the COVID-19 outbreak will also be the same as the SARS outbreak.

During SARS outbreak, health authorities in each country intensified efforts to detect, examine, and isolate positive patients. This effort aims to prevent the virus from multiplying so that it disappears by itself.

The spread of SARS has decreased after the quarantine, travel restrictions and checks at airports. Health authorities have also intensified health campaigns to further reduce the space for the spread of the virus.

The same thing needs to be applied to reach the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. Right now, everyone needs to take part in it physical distancing . This is an effort to maintain distance and limit activity with other people to prevent the spread of the virus.

If everyone is disciplined to run physical distancing , those who are positive but asymptomatic will not infect healthy people. The number of cases can be reduced and the hospital is able to treat patients with severe symptoms.

COVID-19 will eventually have the same fate as the swine flu, Zika and SARS outbreaks. Viruses that cause disease are still around you, but they are very few in number and not many will be infected by them.

Theory 3: Vaccines are available to stop transmission

Until now, there is no vaccine that can bring the COVID-19 pandemic to an end. Vaccine development is still underway and researchers are constrained by time, cost, and risk of side effects to patients.

However, efforts to develop the SARS vaccine a dozen years ago have now become provisions for researchers in making the COVID-19 vaccine. Thanks to this, the vaccine development process will probably take less time.

Several international drug companies are now even competing to develop a vaccine for COVID-19. Some are developing it from the genetic code of the virus, and others are testing existing drugs to see their effects.

According to Anthony Fauci, head of the center for infectious diseases at the National Institutes of Health, the development of a COVID-19 vaccine may move quickly so that it can bring the end of this pandemic.

While waiting for the vaccine to emerge, people can protect themselves from the risk of infection through prevention efforts. The simplest step that can be done at this time is to wash your hands regularly using clean water and soap.

Possible end of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia

COVID-19 cases in Indonesia over the past month have reached 2,491 people. However, the number of people infected is thought to be even higher. Physical distancing is the best step to reduce the rate of transmission.

At the end of March, several alumni of the Mathematics Department of the University of Indonesia used a simple mathematical model to predict the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. They revealed three possible scenarios in Indonesia.

Here's an overview:

1. Scenario 1: Everyone is active without distance

In this scenario, there is no significant and decisive policy in reducing human interaction. Everyone went about their usual activities, public places were opened, and there were no precautions.

The peak of the pandemic is likely to occur on June 4, 2020 with 11,318 new cases. The total number of positive cases reached hundreds of thousands of cases. The end of the COVID-19 pandemic was only seen in late August to early September.

2. Scenario 2: there is a policy, but the community lacks discipline

There is already a policy to maintain distance, but the policy is less firm and less strategic. Society is also not disciplined in running physical distancing . Indonesia is more or less in this condition.

The peak of the pandemic is likely to occur on May 2, 2020, with 1,490 new cases. The total number of positive cases reached 60,000 cases. The pandemic starts to subside in late June or early July.

3. Scenario 3: firm policies and disciplined society

Starting April 1, a firm and strategic policy was put in place to limit human interaction. Discipline society runs physical distancing and stay home.

In this scenario, the peak of the pandemic is likely April 16 with 546 new cases. The total number of positive cases reached 17,000. The end of the COVID-19 pandemic began to appear in late May or early June.

Prevent future pandemics

Source: Business Insider Singapore

Like SARS, the COVID-19 outbreak was a result of spillover or the transfer of viruses from animals to humans. The virus that causes the SARS outbreak is known to originate from bats, while SARS-CoV-2 originates from pangolins.

SARS-CoV-2 may mutate in a market that sells wild animals, then transfer species to humans when someone eats its meat. This is why the consumption of wild animal meat is the main key in preventing future pandemics.

Everyone needs to have awareness not to eat wild animal meat, considering that wild animals are very likely to carry dangerous viruses. On the other hand, experts can carry out surveillance on high-risk animals.

In addition, people also need to be diligent in implementing clean and healthy living habits to prevent exposure to viruses from the surrounding environment. Also protect yourself and those closest to you with vaccinations, if available.

The end of the COVID-19 pandemic may still not be seen. However, every party is now trying hard to detect patients and prevent transmission. You can also play an active role by applying physical distancing and keep clean.

In addition, you can also participate to help health workers in Indonesia get complete personal protective equipment (PPE) and according to WHO standards and COVID-19 patients get access to ventilators in hospitals. To do this, please donate at the link below.