The density of a city determines the length of the Covid pandemic

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A study predicts that large, densely populated cities will experience the COVID-19 pandemic longer than areas with small populations. Until now, after more than 8 months have passed, the global COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing and there is no sign of an end soon.

The addition of cases in Indonesia is still relatively high, with around 4,000 increases per day and the case reduction curve has not yet been shown. That means, although in several other countries the first wave has been passed, while in Indonesia the peak of the first wave has not yet been passed.

How will urban and population congestion make the COVID-19 outbreak last longer?

In the early phases of the pandemic, transmission occurred due to human mobility out of Wuhan and then spread to various other countries. Then the transmission spreads in one area and changes to no longer an import case but a local transmission between the community.

Researcher from Oxford University model the spread of COVID-19 in cities or communities with different population densities.

The study was conducted by validating the model and comparing transmission data from individual movements and infection rates in densely populated Chinese cities with less populated provinces in Italy.

Based on this modeling, the research team found that reducing the mobility of residents was able to reduce the rate of adding cases. However, population density is an independent factor that determines the pandemic situation.

Areas with low population and population density experience less pandemics than areas with high population and high population density. In less densely populated areas, the peak of an outbreak can be rapid when it occurs superspreading or major contagion. However the plague could quickly break them down because the residents did not mingle freely.

Meanwhile, big cities with densely populated areas are predicted to experience a pandemic for a longer period of time. Overcrowding has the potential to lead to continuous transmission between households and urban populations.

Another factor that keeps the cases of transmission from decreasing and occurring prolonged is also related to city layout and social structure, not just population crowds. So reducing the mobility of citizens can be a non-medical intervention to reduce the rate of transmission, thus marking the epidemic curve. For this reason, it is necessary to consider changes to the city structure that can reduce crowds throughout the city space.

COVID-19 Outbreak updates Country: IndonesiaData

1,024,298

Confirmed

831,330

Recovered

28,855

DeathDistribution Map

Trends in transmission in densely populated cities

The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 transmission worldwide has surpassed 35 million, according to figures by America's Johns Hopkins University.

In other studies conducted by researchers Johns Hopkins and Utah University shows the other side of the COVID-19 transmission in cities and in the regions.

Large cities that are densely populated, although in theory will cause large and prolonged transmission, but have access to better health facilities. Apart from that, prevention policies and implementation are also given more attention.

Meanwhile, infections that occur in areas with less population, such as in rural areas, tend to have a higher mortality rate due to a lack of health facilities. This study emphasizes that regional design, urban planning and spatial policies to reduce urban density are very important to be improved in the face of COVID-19.